Outlook

AI-driven global fab expansion and leading-edge spend underpin VAT’s 2026 outlook. 

With industry observers expecting no slowdown in the scope of AI infrastructure investments being made in 2026 and 2027, VAT believes the market is entering a strong, structural growth phase where demand for advanced logic and memory chips will outpace the industry’s ability to provide supply. Overall, it is now believed that the global semiconductor market will surpass the USD 1 trillion mark already in 2027; two years earlier than previously predicted. 

VAT expects to see a significant build-out of manufacturing equipment in the coming quarters. With over 110 semiconductor fabs currently under construction globally there will be a strong demand for manufacturing equipment, especially in leading-edge to cover demand for logic chips of 5nm and below and HBM memory chips. 

Geopolitics and macroeconomics, including the monetary policy of core global economies, remain a swing factor for VAT in 2026, and are likely to lead to continued FX drag on results. This increased volatility confirms that VAT’s global manufacturing setup and flexible operating model give it the ability to deal with these factors. 

In Semiconductors, global market research firms expect WFE growth to amount to around 10% overall globally, and total WFE spend to reach around USD 130 billion. VAT expects to benefit disproportionally from the higher growth rates in vacuum-intensive and leading-edge markets. China will remain a core growth market for VAT in 2026. Given the high demand for leading-edge tools, the adjacencies business will benefit as well due to the greater content of adjacent products in leading-edge manufacturing. 

In Global Service, VAT’s consumables and spares business will benefit from continued high fab utilization rates in DRAM and logic fabs as well as upgrading and retrofit activity. NAND fabs are expected to add further growth to Global Service. VAT is innovating its service offering, with faster service execution that will minimize downtime in the current market upturn. 

In Advanced Industrials, the energy required by AI datacenters is driving demand for innovative and renewable energy sources. Further investment is expected in pilot fusion systems. In nuclear energy, the US is moving ahead with large investments to restore domestic uranium enrichment capabilities, with the aim of powering small-modular reactors collocated with datacenters. Scientific instruments and semiconductor metrology applications remain a growth opportunity in 2026. 

On this basis, VAT expects full-year 2026 orders, sales, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin to be higher than in 2025. Net income and free cash flow are also expected to be higher in 2026.